The Russian stock market closed the last trading of the shortened week on the positive side, although the dynamics turned out to be very weak. The Moscow Exchange index rose by 0.15% to 3,315.68 points, the RTS index gained 0.04% to 1,152.12 points. The main support for the market comes from dividend expectations; the current year promises to be a record year in terms of payments. Russian issuers are expected to collectively pay out a record 5 trillion rouble in 2024, almost double what they paid out in 2023. John Walsh, a senior analyst at Alfa Bank, points out that this will be a one-time attraction of unprecedented generosity, driven by the weakening rouble, boosting export earnings in 2023 and enabling record pay-outs from oil companies including SNGS, LKOH and SIBN. Another plus is the positive corporate news background, which does not allow the market to fall much even before the long weekend. The weakening of the rouble before the holidays, when investors traditionally shift into foreign currency, at the same time had a negative impact on the RTS index. “The external trading background for the Russian market today is very constructive new ECB inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are being discussed in the Old World and overseas. Most foreign exchanges were in the black against this background,” noted Natalya Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. An abundance of positive factors saved the market from falling, despite the shortened week. Investors are usually reluctant to stay in positions before a long weekend. Zarina Saidova, leading analyst of the stock analysis department of Finam Financial Group, Moscow Exchange Index notes that taking into account signs of technical overheating, the Moscow Exchange Index may correct in the short term to the level of 3275 points. The growth leaders were CIAN (+5%), TMK (+2.5%), M.video (+1.8%). HeadHunter (+1.5%), Moscow Exchange (+1.3%), TGK-1 (+1.2%), Sovcomflot (+1%). The leaders in the increase were the shares of X5 Group (+3.1%), the securities are still supported by the news about the inclusion of the company in the list of economically significant organisations, which will contribute to the process of re-domiciliation in Russia. The shares of Detsky Mir (-4.2%), Polymetal (-2.8%), DEK (-1.5%), LSR (-1.5%), NCSP (-1.4%), RusHydro (-1.1%), Samolet (-1.1%), QIWI (-1%) went negative. Brent quotes failed to rise above $83 per barrel. Anton Kravchenko, head of the shares department of Management Company Pervaya, explains the weakness of the commodity market by the fact that in China at the National People's Congress the level of GDP growth for 2024 was set at 5%, which means higher growth rates are not expected, which indicates the absence possible additional demand for oil. The rouble continues to trend towards strengthening. “This trend is supported by a number of factors, including the sale of foreign currency earnings by the Bank of Russia, exporters within the framework of the presidential decree and an increase in revenues of the oil and gas industry. These factors ensure the influx of foreign currency into the market,” explained Anton Kravchenko, noting that the main strategic factor remains the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia. By Anastasia Dolgikh for Finam (Russia). |
The Russian stock market closed the last trading of the shortened week on the positive side, although the dynamics turned out to be very weak. The Moscow Exchange index rose by 0.15% to 3,315.68 points, the RTS index gained 0.04% to 1,152.12 points. The main support for the market comes from dividend expectations; the current year promises to be a record year in terms of payments. Russian issuers are expected to collectively pay out a record 5 trillion rouble in 2024, almost double what they paid out in 2023. John Walsh, a senior analyst at Alfa Bank, points out that this will be a one-time attraction of unprecedented generosity, driven by the weakening rouble, boosting export earnings in 2023 and enabling record pay-outs from oil companies including SNGS, LKOH and SIBN. Another plus is the positive corporate news background, which does not allow the market to fall much even before the long weekend. The weakening of the rouble before the holidays, when investors traditionally shift into foreign currency, at the same time had a negative impact on the RTS index. “The external trading background for the Russian market today is very constructive new ECB inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are being discussed in the Old World and overseas. Most foreign exchanges were in the black against this background,” noted Natalya Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. An abundance of positive factors saved the market from falling, despite the shortened week. Investors are usually reluctant to stay in positions before a long weekend. Zarina Saidova, leading analyst of the stock analysis department of Finam Financial Group, Moscow Exchange Index notes that taking into account signs of technical overheating, the Moscow Exchange Index may correct in the short term to the level of 3275 points. The growth leaders were CIAN (+5%), TMK (+2.5%), M.video (+1.8%). HeadHunter (+1.5%), Moscow Exchange (+1.3%), TGK-1 (+1.2%), Sovcomflot (+1%). The leaders in the increase were the shares of X5 Group (+3.1%), the securities are still supported by the news about the inclusion of the company in the list of economically significant organisations, which will contribute to the process of re-domiciliation in Russia. The shares of Detsky Mir (-4.2%), Polymetal (-2.8%), DEK (-1.5%), LSR (-1.5%), NCSP (-1.4%), RusHydro (-1.1%), Samolet (-1.1%), QIWI (-1%) went negative. Brent quotes failed to rise above $83 per barrel. Anton Kravchenko, head of the shares department of Management Company Pervaya, explains the weakness of the commodity market by the fact that in China at the National People's Congress the level of GDP growth for 2024 was set at 5%, which means higher growth rates are not expected, which indicates the absence possible additional demand for oil. The rouble continues to trend towards strengthening. “This trend is supported by a number of factors, including the sale of foreign currency earnings by the Bank of Russia, exporters within the framework of the presidential decree and an increase in revenues of the oil and gas industry. These factors ensure the influx of foreign currency into the market,” explained Anton Kravchenko, noting that the main strategic factor remains the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia. By Anastasia Dolgikh for Finam (Russia). |
The Russian Ministry of Finance reported on Tuesday plans to buy Chinese yuan for above-plan oil and gas revenues as part of the so-called budget rule, which should limit current government spending. The current three-year financial plan includes a reduction in government spending after 2024 to normalize the budget, that...
The Russian Ministry of Finance reported on Tuesday plans to buy Chinese yuan for above-plan oil and gas revenues as part of the so-called budget rule, which should limit current government spending. The current three-year financial plan includes a reduction in government spending after 2024 to normalize the budget, that...
In an environment of extremely low unemployment, economists continue to search for hidden talent pools. And during one of the statistical tricks, it turned out that the internal potential for additional supply of labour resources in Russia now amounts to 7.5 million people. Judging by what the employers themselves say,...
In an environment of extremely low unemployment, economists continue to search for hidden talent pools. And during one of the statistical tricks, it turned out that the internal potential for additional supply of labour resources in Russia now amounts to 7.5 million people. Judging by what the employers themselves say,...
China's yuan held steady against a weakening U.S. dollar, as U.S. yields slipped after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments reinforced market expectations for rate cuts.
Powell said on Thursday the U.S. central bank was "not far" from gaining the confidence it needs in falling inflation to begin cutting interest rates.
The 10-year Treasury...
China's yuan held steady against a weakening U.S. dollar, as U.S. yields slipped after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments reinforced market expectations for rate cuts.
Powell said on Thursday the U.S. central bank was "not far" from gaining the confidence it needs in falling inflation to begin cutting interest rates.
The 10-year Treasury...
Business sentiment in the construction sector continued to improve in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to a review by the Centre for Market Research (CMR) of the HSE ISREK. The business confidence index (BCI) in this industry reached its best value for the year and amounted to minus 11%...
Business sentiment in the construction sector continued to improve in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to a review by the Centre for Market Research (CMR) of the HSE ISREK. The business confidence index (BCI) in this industry reached its best value for the year and amounted to minus 11%...