Issue 119 - 24.04.2018
24.04.2018

Centerra Gold announced the extension of the deadline for compliance with the terms of the agreement with the Government of Kyrgyzstan

On April 20, Centerra announced an agreement to extend the deadline for the implementation of all conditions under the strategic agreement previously concluded with the Kyrgyz side from April 20, 2018 to May 31, 2018 in connection with the change of the Government in the Kyrgyz Republic.

The Company notes that most of the terms of the agreement have already been fulfilled and there are some land use permits and the termination of certain legal proceedings that are still pending.

The President S. Jeenbekov dismissed the former Kyrgyz government, led by S. Isakov, on April 19 after the Parliament of the Republic expressed a no-confidence vote. On April 20, a new cabinet of ministers, headed by M. Abylgaziev, was approved.

The acting President, S. Jeenbekov won the election in Kyrgyzstan in October 2017. Previously, he served as a prime minister and had the support of the ruling Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) during the presidential campaign.

For now, we believe that changes in the executive power of Kyrgyzstan will not entail a structural review of the state's policy in attracting foreign investments and will not affect the work of Centerra and the concluded strategic agreement.

Despite the observed changes and some disputes between S. Jeenbekov and the former president and acting chairman of the SDPK A. Atambayev, we attribute these factors to the internal affairs of the acting authorities and do not see any direct risks for the continuation of the operations of Centerra Gold in Kyrgyzstan.

By Andrey Kozhokaru for Halyk Finance (Kazakhstan).

Kyrgyzstan General

24.04.2018

Kyrgyzstanis to have a rest for three days in early May

Kyrgyzstanis will have a rest for three days in early May. The decision was made to rationally use the weekends and non-working holidays in 2018. The relevant government decree was signed as far back as in March.

The day off on April 28 is postponed to the working day on April 30; a day off on May 7 — to the working day on September 3....

Kyrgyzstanis will have a rest for three days in early May. The decision was made to rationally use the weekends and non-working holidays in 2018. The relevant government decree was signed as far back as in March.

The day off on April 28 is postponed to the working day on April 30; a day off on May 7 — to the working day on September 3. Thus, the Kyrgyzstanis...

24.04.2018

Prosecutor Ulan Chalbaev arrested

The head of the Office for Maintenance of the State Prosecution and Representation in the Courts of the Prosecutor General’s Office Ulan Chalbaev was formally charged with taking a bribe in an especially large amount. Press center of the State Committee for National Security reported.

According to the committee, the Pervomaiskiy District Court of Bishkek chose for Ulan...

The head of the Office for Maintenance of the State Prosecution and Representation in the Courts of the Prosecutor General’s Office Ulan Chalbaev was formally charged with taking a bribe in an especially large amount. Press center of the State Committee for National Security reported.

According to the committee, the Pervomaiskiy District Court of Bishkek chose for Ulan Chalbaev a preventive measure...

24.04.2018

Salvation of a Swiss who fell in Ala-Archa

The tourist was evacuated nine hours after the rescue team arrived.

A snowboarder from Switzerland, who fell off during a descent in the Ala-Archa Gorge mountains, was taken to the hospital, Pavel Vorobyov, one of the members of the rescue crew, said.

Earlier, the press service of the Ministry of Emergencies reported...

The tourist was evacuated nine hours after the rescue team arrived.

A snowboarder from Switzerland, who fell off during a descent in the Ala-Archa Gorge mountains, was taken to the hospital, Pavel Vorobyov, one of the members of the rescue crew, said.

Earlier, the press service of the Ministry of Emergencies reported...

Finance and Investment

24.04.2018

Prime Minister Abylgaziev spoke out for pulling of the Kyrgyz economy out of the shadows

Priority will be given to the regional development, agriculture, the reform of the energy system, social development and the introduction of advanced digital technologies in the work of state bodies of the country. This was announced by Prime Minister Muhammadkal Abylgaziev during a workshop with the participation of government members...

Priority will be given to the regional development, agriculture, the reform of the energy system, social development and the introduction of advanced digital technologies in the work of state bodies of the country. This was announced by Prime Minister Muhammadkal Abylgaziev during a workshop with the participation of government members...

24.04.2018

As of today, smart counters have been installed in Kyrgyzstan for 15% of subscribers

At present, smart counters have been installed in Kyrgyzstan at 15% of all subscribers, 205,000 units, Azamat Omorov, deputy chairman of the State Committee for Industry, Energy and Mineral Resources, said at a meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on Budget and Finance.

The deputies considered the draft law on ratification of...

At present, smart counters have been installed in Kyrgyzstan at 15% of all subscribers, 205,000 units, Azamat Omorov, deputy chairman of the State Committee for Industry, Energy and Mineral Resources, said at a meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on Budget and Finance.

The deputies considered the draft law on ratification of...

24.04.2018

State budget revenues in 2017 amounted to 149.3 billion som

In 2017, the state budget revenues amounted to 149 billion 384.5 million som. This is noted in government reports.

In comparison with 2016, it grew by 14.4% or by 18 billion 810.1 million som more, due to the growth of tax and non-tax revenues and received official transfers.

Without taking into account...

In 2017, the state budget revenues amounted to 149 billion 384.5 million som. This is noted in government reports.

In comparison with 2016, it grew by 14.4% or by 18 billion 810.1 million som more, due to the growth of tax and non-tax revenues and received official transfers.

Without taking into account...

24.04.2018

Kyrgyz people have more money on their hands

The volume of money resources in circulation among the people of Kyrgyzstan has increased, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan informs.

Money in circulation is the population's funds, taking into account the balances of funds in the cash departments of credit institutions. It is only about the national currency, foreign currency is...

The volume of money resources in circulation among the people of Kyrgyzstan has increased, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan informs.

Money in circulation is the population's funds, taking into account the balances of funds in the cash departments of credit institutions. It is only about the national currency, foreign currency is...

24.04.2018

Kyrgyzstan’s economic week – Apr. 16-21, 2018

At a meeting of former Minister of Economy Artem Novikov and Polish Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Selim Khazbievich, it became known that in 2017 the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $ 24.7 million. The growth was 44.5% compared to 2016, including exports amounted to $ 1.9 million (an...

At a meeting of former Minister of Economy Artem Novikov and Polish Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Selim Khazbievich, it became known that in 2017 the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $ 24.7 million. The growth was 44.5% compared to 2016, including exports amounted to $ 1.9 million (an...

24.04.2018

Dollar jumps as U.S. 10-year bond yields approach 3 percent

The U.S. dollar rallied to a seven-week high on Monday as investors bought the greenback on the rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield toward the psychologically important 3 percent level, leaving the euro and yen lower.

The 10-year yield hit its highest in over four years at 2.998 percent, driven...

The U.S. dollar rallied to a seven-week high on Monday as investors bought the greenback on the rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield toward the psychologically important 3 percent level, leaving the euro and yen lower.

The 10-year yield hit its highest in over four years at 2.998 percent, driven...

Metals and Minerals

24.04.2018

Centerra “notes that the government … was dismissed"

Gold miner Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) is hopeful of working to ensure the future of its Kumtor operations in the Kyrgyz Republic, where the government was suddenly dismissed last week.

Centerra announced on Friday that it had reached an agreement with the government to extend the period from April 20 to May...

Gold miner Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) is hopeful of working to ensure the future of its Kumtor operations in the Kyrgyz Republic, where the government was suddenly dismissed last week.

Centerra announced on Friday that it had reached an agreement with the government to extend the period from April 20 to May...

24.04.2018

Centerra Gold ratios in the spotlight

Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG) boasts a Price to Book ratio of 0.886393. This ratio is calculated by dividing the current share price by the book value per share. Investors may use Price to Book to display how the market portrays the value of a stock. Checking in on some other ratios,...

Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG) boasts a Price to Book ratio of 0.886393. This ratio is calculated by dividing the current share price by the book value per share. Investors may use Price to Book to display how the market portrays the value of a stock. Checking in on some other ratios,...

24.04.2018

Gold hits two-Week low as U.S. yields approach 3 percent, lifting dollar

Gold hit a two-week low on Monday, as investors piled into the dollar with U.S. Treasury yields approaching 3 percent and geopolitical tensions eased.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries hit its highest since January 2014, lifting the dollar index to a seven-week peak and making dollar-priced gold costlier holders of...

Gold hit a two-week low on Monday, as investors piled into the dollar with U.S. Treasury yields approaching 3 percent and geopolitical tensions eased.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries hit its highest since January 2014, lifting the dollar index to a seven-week peak and making dollar-priced gold costlier holders of...

24.04.2018

Aluminium tumbles as U.S. extends deadline for Rusal wind-down

Aluminium fell more than 8 percent on Monday on news that the United States has extended the deadline for companies to wind down business with sanctions-hit Russian producer Rusal.

Americans engaged with Rusal now have until Oct. 23 to close out their business with the aluminium giant, the U.S. Treasury Department...

Aluminium fell more than 8 percent on Monday on news that the United States has extended the deadline for companies to wind down business with sanctions-hit Russian producer Rusal.

Americans engaged with Rusal now have until Oct. 23 to close out their business with the aluminium giant, the U.S. Treasury Department...

Energy Industry

24.04.2018

Electric Stations company lost action against expert

Expert Rasul Umbetaliev told 24.kg news agency that Electric Stations JSC lost a court case against him.

Consideration of the claim of Electric Stations OJSC to refute the information, discrediting business reputation and to compensate for the moral damage caused by their distribution, ended in the Pervomaysky District Court of Bishkek.

The management of the company...

Expert Rasul Umbetaliev told 24.kg news agency that Electric Stations JSC lost a court case against him.

Consideration of the claim of Electric Stations OJSC to refute the information, discrediting business reputation and to compensate for the moral damage caused by their distribution, ended in the Pervomaysky District Court of Bishkek.

The management of the company intended to recover...

Trade and Consumer Goods

24.04.2018

EEC approved measures to stimulate the creation of import substitution products in the territory of the EEU

At the meeting of the Eurasian Economic Council, measures were approved to stimulate the creation of import substitution products on the territory of the Eurasian Economic Union. This was reported by the press service of the EEC.

According to the data, among them is consideration of potential areas of cooperation on...

At the meeting of the Eurasian Economic Council, measures were approved to stimulate the creation of import substitution products on the territory of the Eurasian Economic Union. This was reported by the press service of the EEC.

According to the data, among them is consideration of potential areas of cooperation on...

24.04.2018

Organic production in the EEU is reaching the legislative level

The international turnover of organic products in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union is about $90 billion and annually increases by 10-15%. This was reported by the press service of the Eurasian Economic Commission.

"In this regard, the topic of regulatory and legal regulation of organic products is particularly relevant,"...

The international turnover of organic products in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union is about $90 billion and annually increases by 10-15%. This was reported by the press service of the Eurasian Economic Commission.

"In this regard, the topic of regulatory and legal regulation of organic products is particularly relevant,"...

Agriculture

24.04.2018

Agrarian Committee of the Parliament has postponed the consideration of the bill on the transition of Kyrgyzstan to gasoline and diesel fuel of K-4 and K-5 class

The Committee on the agrarian policy, water resources, ecology and regional development postponed in the third reading the consideration of the bill on amendments to some legislative acts of Kyrgyzstan, which provided for transition to gasoline and diesel fuel of K-4 and K-5 class fr om January 1, 2019.

The initiator...

The Committee on the agrarian policy, water resources, ecology and regional development postponed in the third reading the consideration of the bill on amendments to some legislative acts of Kyrgyzstan, which provided for transition to gasoline and diesel fuel of K-4 and K-5 class fr om January 1, 2019.

The initiator...

24.04.2018

Wheat prices jump 1 pct as U.S. rains bring only limited relief

U.S. wheat futures rose 1 percent on Monday, rebounding from a 10-day low touched earlier in the session, as fears over the condition of the U.S. crop resurfaced as recent rains delivered only partial relief.

The most active wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 1 percent at...

U.S. wheat futures rose 1 percent on Monday, rebounding from a 10-day low touched earlier in the session, as fears over the condition of the U.S. crop resurfaced as recent rains delivered only partial relief.

The most active wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 1 percent at...

Manufacturing industry

24.04.2018

Value of industrial products production in 3 months in Kyrgyzstan amounted to more than 57 million som

For the first quarter of 2018, Kyrgyzstan produced industrial products worth 57 million 376.9 thousand som. This is reported in the data of the National Statistical Committee of the economic indicators for industry for the I quarter of 2018.

In the ranking among the regions for the production of industrial products,...

For the first quarter of 2018, Kyrgyzstan produced industrial products worth 57 million 376.9 thousand som. This is reported in the data of the National Statistical Committee of the economic indicators for industry for the I quarter of 2018.

In the ranking among the regions for the production of industrial products,...

Oil and Gas Sector

24.04.2018

The 6 factors driving oil markets in 2018

Uncertainty appears to have returned to oil markets of late, with a cluster of factors battling for influence over prices.

The oil bulls are very content with the Vienna deal, its success (hitherto) and the prospects of another extension. The coming summer driving season is sure to boost this bullish sentiment...

Uncertainty appears to have returned to oil markets of late, with a cluster of factors battling for influence over prices.

The oil bulls are very content with the Vienna deal, its success (hitherto) and the prospects of another extension. The coming summer driving season is sure to boost this bullish sentiment...

24.04.2018

Oil falls after U.S. signal on Russia sanctions batters commodities

Oil fell on Monday, as other raw materials came under pressure and after Iran's oil minister said there would be no need to extend a deal on supply restraint if crude prices rose further.

Industrial commodities sank after the United States hinted at sanctions relief for Russian aluminium producer Rusal if...

Oil fell on Monday, as other raw materials came under pressure and after Iran's oil minister said there would be no need to extend a deal on supply restraint if crude prices rose further.

Industrial commodities sank after the United States hinted at sanctions relief for Russian aluminium producer Rusal if...

24.04.2018

Gazprom to build $20-bln gas processing plant near Baltic Sea

Russia’s top gas producer which also markets most of Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s exported gas plans to construct a gigantic gas processing plant on the Baltic Sea in collaboration with RusGasDobycha, a company previously owned by businessman Arkady Rotenberg, Vedomosti writes with reference to sources in the industry. The cost of...

Russia’s top gas producer which also markets most of Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s exported gas plans to construct a gigantic gas processing plant on the Baltic Sea in collaboration with RusGasDobycha, a company previously owned by businessman Arkady Rotenberg, Vedomosti writes with reference to sources in the industry. The cost of...

Communications and Transportation

24.04.2018

Road to Naryn and Boom gorge to be closed for traffic

The national company Kyrgyz Temir Zholu reported on the closure of Bishkek-Torugart and Boom gorge roads.

From April 24 to April 26, drilling and blasting operations will be carried out at the section of Bishkek-Torugart road (the old road). The movement of vehicles at the section from the 103rd to 117th km from 8.00 am to 10.00 pm will be completely closed. The cars...

The national company Kyrgyz Temir Zholu reported on the closure of Bishkek-Torugart and Boom gorge roads.

From April 24 to April 26, drilling and blasting operations will be carried out at the section of Bishkek-Torugart road (the old road). The movement of vehicles at the section from the 103rd to 117th km from 8.00 am to 10.00 pm will be completely closed. The cars moving towards Issyk-Kul...

Regional News

24.04.2018

Offer to give e-residency status to foreign businessmen in Kazakhstan

Within the Digital Kazakhstan program, Kazakhstan Ministry of Foreign Affairs is proposing introduction of the so-called electronic residency for foreign businessmen wishing to open a business in our country. The project on it was presented by the head of the MFA IT department, Azamat Bukebaev, on the day of digitalization...

Within the Digital Kazakhstan program, Kazakhstan Ministry of Foreign Affairs is proposing introduction of the so-called electronic residency for foreign businessmen wishing to open a business in our country. The project on it was presented by the head of the MFA IT department, Azamat Bukebaev, on the day of digitalization...

24.04.2018

Kazakhstan wheat production to fall 5% as planted area cut back

Kazakhstan’s wheat production is set to fall 5.4% year-on-year to 14 million mt as farmers reduce planted area to the second-lowest level since 2004, the USDA’s local office in Astana said in an update published Friday.

A 4.1% reduction in planted area was the primary driver behind lower production, with only...

Kazakhstan’s wheat production is set to fall 5.4% year-on-year to 14 million mt as farmers reduce planted area to the second-lowest level since 2004, the USDA’s local office in Astana said in an update published Friday.

A 4.1% reduction in planted area was the primary driver behind lower production, with only...

24.04.2018

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan ink 17 documents

President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov arrived on a state visit to Uzbekistan today.

The official welcoming ceremony of the President of Turkmenistan took place at Kuksaroy residence.

After the tete-a-tete meeting, the presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan continued negotiations with the participation of official delegations of the two countries.

Following the talks, a...

President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov arrived on a state visit to Uzbekistan today.

The official welcoming ceremony of the President of Turkmenistan took place at Kuksaroy residence.

After the tete-a-tete meeting, the presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan continued negotiations with the participation of official delegations of the two countries.

Following the talks, a...

24.04.2018

Tajik, Uzbek regions vow to boost economic cooperation

A conference of representatives of business communities of Tajikistan’s Sughd province and Uzbekistan’s Samarqand region took place in the Uzbek city of Samarqand on April 21, according to the Uzbek news website Nuz.uz. 

Led by Sughd governor Rajabboy Ahmadzoda, the delegation of the Sughd province reportedly consisted of 46 entrepreneurs, 60...

A conference of representatives of business communities of Tajikistan’s Sughd province and Uzbekistan’s Samarqand region took place in the Uzbek city of Samarqand on April 21, according to the Uzbek news website Nuz.uz. 

Led by Sughd governor Rajabboy Ahmadzoda, the delegation of the Sughd province reportedly consisted of 46 entrepreneurs, 60...

24.04.2018

Parliament of Tajikistan to discuss Tajik-Uzbek agreement on Farkhad HPP

The lower chamber of the Tajik Parliament will discuss agreement between the governments of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on cooperation on ensuring operation of the Farkhad Dam on Monday session, the Tajik media reported.

According to the document signed by the two countries during the state visit of President of Uzbekistan Shavkat...

The lower chamber of the Tajik Parliament will discuss agreement between the governments of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on cooperation on ensuring operation of the Farkhad Dam on Monday session, the Tajik media reported.

According to the document signed by the two countries during the state visit of President of Uzbekistan Shavkat...

24.04.2018

Lack of funds will not hamper Belt and Road initiative - academic

The former chairman and president of the Export-Import Bank of China, Li Ruogu, has warned about the credit risks associated with China's One Belt, One Road Initiative. Li Ruogu and other Chinese state bankers believe that in order to implement the initiative large capital injections are required.

The Chinese business publication...

The former chairman and president of the Export-Import Bank of China, Li Ruogu, has warned about the credit risks associated with China's One Belt, One Road Initiative. Li Ruogu and other Chinese state bankers believe that in order to implement the initiative large capital injections are required.

The Chinese business publication...

24.04.2018

Belt and Road Initiative facilitates China-CEE cooperation: PwC

The Belt and Road Initiative will facilitate win-win cooperation between China and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries, according to global accounting and consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

Chinese businesses used to be more inclined to invest in resource-rich countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan, Piotr Romanowski, PwC partner on advisory business...

The Belt and Road Initiative will facilitate win-win cooperation between China and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries, according to global accounting and consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

Chinese businesses used to be more inclined to invest in resource-rich countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan, Piotr Romanowski, PwC partner on advisory business...

24.04.2018

China to further lower business costs

China plans more measures to lower business costs this year, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

The country plans to cut business costs such as charges for electricity use, logistics and intermediary services, which are expected to save more than 150 billion yuan (23.8 billion U.S. dollars) for enterprises...

China plans more measures to lower business costs this year, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

The country plans to cut business costs such as charges for electricity use, logistics and intermediary services, which are expected to save more than 150 billion yuan (23.8 billion U.S. dollars) for enterprises...

24.04.2018

Yuan becoming safe haven for investors amid Russia-US standoff

Chinese assets have recently seen a significant inflow of investments after relations between Russia and the US took a turn for the worse, making investors search for a safe place for their cash.

The Chinese yuan is becoming a safe haven for global investors, Larry Brainard, TS Lombard chief emerging markets...

Chinese assets have recently seen a significant inflow of investments after relations between Russia and the US took a turn for the worse, making investors search for a safe place for their cash.

The Chinese yuan is becoming a safe haven for global investors, Larry Brainard, TS Lombard chief emerging markets...

24.04.2018

Russian business tired of state involvement, expects no major privatisation deals, survey says

Around 90% of large Russian companies highlight mounting government involvement in the economy, a poll conducted by the Adizes Institute, a global consultancy, under RBC’s request showed. The bulk of respondents consider the state’s share to be extremely large, but expect no major privatisation deals in the future, the paper...24.04.2018Russian grain crop forecast for 2018 
Forecast of the harvest of grains and pulses in Russia in 2018
Crops Planted areas, `000 ha Harvested areas, `000 ha Yield, c/ha Production, `000 tonnes
2017 2018* 2017 2018* 2017 2018* 2017 2018*
TOTAL GRAINS 47 673 46 585 46 301 44 620             29,2               28,8   135 393 128 298
Wheat 27 891 26 379 27 524 25 416             31,2               30,7   85 863 78 121
 - winter 14 925 14 192 14 838 13 908            41,7              41,2   61 850 57 237
 - spring 12 966 12 188 12 668 11 508            19,0              18,1   24 013 20 884
Barley 8 004 8 169 7 840 7 970             26,3               26,1   20 599 20 801
 - winter 515 569 511 559            41,8              42,4   2 140 2 369
 - spring 7 490 7 600 7 328 7 411            25,2              24,9   18 459 18 432
Rye 1 184 1 154 1 176 1 117             21,7               21,9   2 547 2 446
Oats 2 886 2 914 2 770 2 812             19,7               19,6   5 451 5 517
Corn for grain 3 027 3 087 2 702 2 739             49,0               49,1   13 236 13 434
Millet 266 296 235 287             13,5               14,1   317 406
Buckwheat 1 691 1 505 1 496 1 380             10,2               10,8   1 524 1 485
Rice 187 185 186 182             53,1               54,3   987 988
Peas 1 328,0 1 325,0 1 263 1 267             26,0               25,1   3 286 3 180
* APK-Inform forecast
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat)
  This is the first forecast by APK-Inform Agency for the production of grains and pulses in Russia in 2018. These estimations were made on farmers’ poll over the plans for 2018, the multi-year statistics and the estimations of prices development on the domestic and global markets. The winter crops are very important in terms of annual crop formation as almost the half of the total production is made of winter crops, especially in terms of wheat and rye. Thus, almost all rye in Russia is grown as winter crop. Whereas, winter wheat forms 70% of the general wheat production. Thus, the conditions of winter crops are the main factors in terms of forecasting the production.According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, the planted areas under winter wheat reached 17.1 mln tonnes, which is 2% lower year-on-year. Generally, despite the adverse weather conditions in March, the crop condition is not of great concern even if it is a little lower than last year. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia evaluated in “good to excellent conditions” 92.2%, or 15.8 mln ha of winter wheat (95.6% in 2017). According to APK-Inform estimations, the preserved areas of winter crops in 2018 can reach 16.7 mln ha, including 14.2 mln ha of wheat (14.9 mln ha in 2017/18 MY). The areas of winter rye are evaluated at the level of 1.15 mln ha (-2.4% y-o-y). The estimations of the spring crops planting campaign were made by means of farmers’ polls in terms of their plans for the planting campaign in 2018. The poll was conducted in March 2018. In should be noted that before the start of the campaign the majority of agrarians estimated the planted areas under spring wheat and barley (less than 8% of the agrarians did not estimated the crops’ areas). Thus, based on the responses, in 2018 the areas under wheat can decline – 25% of the interviewed farmers reported such intentions. The main reason for this are unacceptable prices (29% of the responders who plan to reduce the areas). Moreover, nearly 18% of the responders plan to reduce the wheat areas in favour of other crops, mostly sunflower seed and corn. The record crop and the stocks of wheat in 2017/18 MY stipulated the wheat price decline in comparison with the previous season. This fact together with the increase of the expenditures for the materials and the equipment led to the decrease of the wheat production profitability. The most vulnerable oblasts are those who are far from the export infrastructure, whereas the issue of the price decline comes together with the distribution difficulties. Generally, we estimate that the planted areas under spring wheat in 2018 can reach 12.2 mln ha (-6% y-o-y). Many agrarians (20% of the respondents) expressed the desire to increase the barley areas. The main reasons for this were the high prices and demand rate of the product. In the current season, barley became the leader in terms of price rates among feed crops. As of April 2018, the barley prices accelerated the prices of 4-grade milling wheat. The price factor is the main base of the agrarians’ plan concerning the planting campaign, so there is possibility that the farmers will increase the barley areas. But it should be noted that the late start of the planting campaign can become an obstacle for the areas increase. Generally, they are estimated at the level of 7.6 mln ha (+2% year-on-year). Speaking about the planting campaign of corn in 2018, many agrarians have not decided on the planted areas (20% of the respondents). The majority of agrarians, who determined over the plan, are going to increase the areas under corn (21%). And the main reasons for these were the competitive prices and the existing demand for the grain. As for today, the corn prices are mostly increasing (due to the high export activity). Corn is a late crop, so agrarians still have the time to decide on the areas. The current situation on the market of corn gives the background for the areas increase, and we estimate them at the level of 3.1 mln ha (+2% y-o-y). If we speak about other crops, the reduction of the planted areas may occur in terms of buckwheat – to 1.5 mln ha (-11% y-o-y), as the record crop in 2017/18 MY can led to the price decline which in turn will spur the declining interest in growing it. The reduction of the millet areas to its minimum in 2017 led to the decline of the production that led to the price rise. That is why many respondents demonstrated the willing to increase millet areas in 2018, which by our estimated can reach 300 thsd ha (+11.5% y-o-y). However, 25% of the respondents did not determine over the plans for the planting campaign of millet. The planted areas under oats are estimated at the level of the previous year – 2.9 mln ha, and rice – 185 thsd ha. The respondents did not determine over the peas areas (21% of the companies). In the current season, the areas and the production of peas reached its maximum. Moreover, the export is also very high. But it should be noted that the biggest importers of peas are India (who implement the import tariffs) and Turkey – with whom there are trade tensions. For now, in terms of high level of uncertainty, we estimate the planted areas in Russia at the level of last year i.g. 1.3 mln ha, as there is possibility of both increase and decrease of the areas. Generally, the winter crops condition is not of great concern, even if it is little lower than the last year one. Speaking of spring crops, it should be noted that there is a possibility to miss the optimum window for planting works, which in turn can affect the yield. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, by the end of the first ten-day period of April the planting campaign of spring crops was 418.3 thsd ha completed (908.7 thsd ha in 2017), including spring wheat – 13.7 thsd ha (46.3 thsd ha in 2017), spring barley – 135.8 thsd ha (475.1 thsd ha in 2017). For now the yield is not going to decline significantly and, concerning the historical statistics, the average yield can reach 2.88 t/ha (2.99 t/ha in 2017/18 MY). In 2018/19 MY, the production of grains and pulses may not reach the record level of 2017/18 MY, but still may become the second largest. According to APK-Inform estimations, the production of grains in Russia in 2018/19 MY is forecasted at the level of 128.3 mln tonnes (-5% y-o-y). Herewith, the production of wheat – 77-78 mln tonnes, barley – 20.8 mln tonnes (the highest level for the last 10 years). The production of corn is forecasted within the range of 13-14 mln tonnes (the same as last season). For now the planting campaign in Russia has only began and our forecast is quite doable. But you should remember that the weather conditions can affect some adjustments. So, in the beginning of the last season no one could imagine the record crop. Thus, the development of the situation remains to be seen. By Julia Krekhovich for APK-Inform (Ukraine).

Around 90% of large Russian companies highlight mounting government involvement in the economy, a poll conducted by the Adizes Institute, a global consultancy, under RBC’s request showed. The bulk of respondents consider the state’s share to be extremely large, but expect no major privatisation deals in the future, the paper...24.04.2018Russian grain crop forecast for 2018 

Forecast of the harvest of grains and pulses in Russia in 2018
Crops Planted areas, `000 ha Harvested areas, `000 ha Yield, c/ha Production, `000 tonnes
2017 2018* 2017 2018* 2017 2018* 2017 2018*
TOTAL GRAINS 47 673 46 585 46 301 44 620             29,2               28,8   135 393 128 298
Wheat 27 891 26 379 27 524 25 416             31,2               30,7   85 863 78 121
 - winter 14 925 14 192 14 838 13 908            41,7              41,2   61 850 57 237
 - spring 12 966 12 188 12 668 11 508            19,0              18,1   24 013 20 884
Barley 8 004 8 169 7 840 7 970             26,3               26,1   20 599 20 801
 - winter 515 569 511 559            41,8              42,4   2 140 2 369
 - spring 7 490 7 600 7 328 7 411            25,2              24,9   18 459 18 432
Rye 1 184 1 154 1 176 1 117             21,7               21,9   2 547 2 446
Oats 2 886 2 914 2 770 2 812             19,7               19,6   5 451 5 517
Corn for grain 3 027 3 087 2 702 2 739             49,0               49,1   13 236 13 434
Millet 266 296 235 287             13,5               14,1   317 406
Buckwheat 1 691 1 505 1 496 1 380             10,2               10,8   1 524 1 485
Rice 187 185 186 182             53,1               54,3   987 988
Peas 1 328,0 1 325,0 1 263 1 267             26,0               25,1   3 286 3 180
* APK-Inform forecast
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat)

  This is the first forecast by APK-Inform Agency for the production of grains and pulses in Russia in 2018. These estimations were made on farmers’ poll over the plans for 2018, the multi-year statistics and the estimations of prices development on the domestic and global markets. The winter crops are very important in terms of annual crop formation as almost the half of the total production is made of winter crops, especially in terms of wheat and rye. Thus, almost all rye in Russia is grown as winter crop. Whereas, winter wheat forms 70% of the general wheat production. Thus, the conditions of winter crops are the main factors in terms of forecasting the production.According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, the planted areas under winter wheat reached 17.1 mln tonnes, which is 2% lower year-on-year. Generally, despite the adverse weather conditions in March, the crop condition is not of great concern even if it is a little lower than last year. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia evaluated in “good to excellent conditions” 92.2%, or 15.8 mln ha of winter wheat (95.6% in 2017). According to APK-Inform estimations, the preserved areas of winter crops in 2018 can reach 16.7 mln ha, including 14.2 mln ha of wheat (14.9 mln ha in 2017/18 MY). The areas of winter rye are evaluated at the level of 1.15 mln ha (-2.4% y-o-y). The estimations of the spring crops planting campaign were made by means of farmers’ polls in terms of their plans for the planting campaign in 2018. The poll was conducted in March 2018. In should be noted that before the start of the campaign the majority of agrarians estimated the planted areas under spring wheat and barley (less than 8% of the agrarians did not estimated the crops’ areas). Thus, based on the responses, in 2018 the areas under wheat can decline – 25% of the interviewed farmers reported such intentions. The main reason for this are unacceptable prices (29% of the responders who plan to reduce the areas). Moreover, nearly 18% of the responders plan to reduce the wheat areas in favour of other crops, mostly sunflower seed and corn. The record crop and the stocks of wheat in 2017/18 MY stipulated the wheat price decline in comparison with the previous season. This fact together with the increase of the expenditures for the materials and the equipment led to the decrease of the wheat production profitability. The most vulnerable oblasts are those who are far from the export infrastructure, whereas the issue of the price decline comes together with the distribution difficulties. Generally, we estimate that the planted areas under spring wheat in 2018 can reach 12.2 mln ha (-6% y-o-y). Many agrarians (20% of the respondents) expressed the desire to increase the barley areas. The main reasons for this were the high prices and demand rate of the product. In the current season, barley became the leader in terms of price rates among feed crops. As of April 2018, the barley prices accelerated the prices of 4-grade milling wheat. The price factor is the main base of the agrarians’ plan concerning the planting campaign, so there is possibility that the farmers will increase the barley areas. But it should be noted that the late start of the planting campaign can become an obstacle for the areas increase. Generally, they are estimated at the level of 7.6 mln ha (+2% year-on-year). Speaking about the planting campaign of corn in 2018, many agrarians have not decided on the planted areas (20% of the respondents). The majority of agrarians, who determined over the plan, are going to increase the areas under corn (21%). And the main reasons for these were the competitive prices and the existing demand for the grain. As for today, the corn prices are mostly increasing (due to the high export activity). Corn is a late crop, so agrarians still have the time to decide on the areas. The current situation on the market of corn gives the background for the areas increase, and we estimate them at the level of 3.1 mln ha (+2% y-o-y). If we speak about other crops, the reduction of the planted areas may occur in terms of buckwheat – to 1.5 mln ha (-11% y-o-y), as the record crop in 2017/18 MY can led to the price decline which in turn will spur the declining interest in growing it. The reduction of the millet areas to its minimum in 2017 led to the decline of the production that led to the price rise. That is why many respondents demonstrated the willing to increase millet areas in 2018, which by our estimated can reach 300 thsd ha (+11.5% y-o-y). However, 25% of the respondents did not determine over the plans for the planting campaign of millet. The planted areas under oats are estimated at the level of the previous year – 2.9 mln ha, and rice – 185 thsd ha. The respondents did not determine over the peas areas (21% of the companies). In the current season, the areas and the production of peas reached its maximum. Moreover, the export is also very high. But it should be noted that the biggest importers of peas are India (who implement the import tariffs) and Turkey – with whom there are trade tensions. For now, in terms of high level of uncertainty, we estimate the planted areas in Russia at the level of last year i.g. 1.3 mln ha, as there is possibility of both increase and decrease of the areas. Generally, the winter crops condition is not of great concern, even if it is little lower than the last year one. Speaking of spring crops, it should be noted that there is a possibility to miss the optimum window for planting works, which in turn can affect the yield. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, by the end of the first ten-day period of April the planting campaign of spring crops was 418.3 thsd ha completed (908.7 thsd ha in 2017), including spring wheat – 13.7 thsd ha (46.3 thsd ha in 2017), spring barley – 135.8 thsd ha (475.1 thsd ha in 2017). For now the yield is not going to decline significantly and, concerning the historical statistics, the average yield can reach 2.88 t/ha (2.99 t/ha in 2017/18 MY). In 2018/19 MY, the production of grains and pulses may not reach the record level of 2017/18 MY, but still may become the second largest. According to APK-Inform estimations, the production of grains in Russia in 2018/19 MY is forecasted at the level of 128.3 mln tonnes (-5% y-o-y). Herewith, the production of wheat – 77-78 mln tonnes, barley – 20.8 mln tonnes (the highest level for the last 10 years). The production of corn is forecasted within the range of 13-14 mln tonnes (the same as last season). For now the planting campaign in Russia has only began and our forecast is quite doable. But you should remember that the weather conditions can affect some adjustments. So, in the beginning of the last season no one could imagine the record crop. Thus, the development of the situation remains to be seen. By Julia Krekhovich for APK-Inform (Ukraine).

24.04.2018

Russia suggests Tajikistan considering the possibility of obtaining status of observer in EAEU

Russia has proposed Tajikistan to consider the possibility of obtaining that status of observer in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Russian Frist Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Shuvalov, told reporters in Moscow on April 20 following the meeting of the Tajik-Russian commission for trade and economic cooperation, according to Russian media...

Russia has proposed Tajikistan to consider the possibility of obtaining that status of observer in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Russian Frist Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Shuvalov, told reporters in Moscow on April 20 following the meeting of the Tajik-Russian commission for trade and economic cooperation, according to Russian media...

Prices and Statistics

24.04.2018

Commodities

Date: April 24, 2018; Source: Bloomberg.com Energy
INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME (EDT) 2 DAY
CL1:COMWTI Crude Oil (Nymex) USD/bbl. 69.12 +0.48 +0.70% Jun 2018 1:45 AM
CO1:COMBrent Crude (ICE) USD/bbl. 75.05 +0.34 +0.46% Jun 2018 1:45 AM
XB1:COMRBOB Gasoline (Nymex) USd/gal. 213.14 +0.77 +0.36% May 2018 1:45 AM
NG1:COMNatural Gas (Nymex) USD/MMBtu 2.74 0.00 -0.15% May 2018 1:45 AM
HO1:COMHeating Oil (Nymex) USd/gal. 214.81 +0.72 +0.34% May 2018 1:45 AM
Precious and Industrial Metals
INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME (EDT) 2 DAY
GC1:COMGold (Comex) USD/t oz. 1,328.90 +4.90 +0.37% Jun 2018 1:45 AM
XAUUSD:CURGold Spot USD/t oz. 1,326.92 +2.09 +0.16% N/A 1:56 AM
SI1:COMSilver (Comex) USD/t oz. 16.68 +0.09 +0.53% Jul 2018 1:45 AM
HG1:COMCopper (Comex) USd/lb. 315.10 +1.95 +0.62% Jul 2018 1:45 AM
XPTUSD:CURPlatinum Spot USD/t oz. 921.70 -0.10 -0.01% N/A 1:55 AM
Agriculture
INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME (EDT) 2 DAY
C 1:COMCorn (CBOT) USd/bu. 387.50 0.00 0.00% Jul 2018 1:33 AM
W 1:COMWheat (CBOT) USd/bu. 473.75 -0.75 -0.16% Jul 2018 1:35 AM
CC1:COMCocoa (ICE) USD/MT 2,726.00 -3.00 -0.11% Jul 2018 4/23/2018
CT1:COMCotton #2 (ICE) USd/lb. 84.42 +0.30 +0.36% Jul 2018 1:20 AM
LC1:COMLive Cattle (CME) USd/lb. 104.88 +1.15 +1.11% Jun 2018 4/23/2018

Date: April 24, 2018; Source: Bloomberg.com

Energy

INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME (EDT) 2 DAY
CL1:COMWTI Crude Oil (Nymex) USD/bbl. 69.12 +0.48 +0.70% Jun 2018 1:45 AM
CO1:COMBrent Crude (ICE) USD/bbl. 75.05 +0.34 +0.46% Jun 2018 1:45 AM
XB1:COMRBOB Gasoline (Nymex) USd/gal. 213.14 +0.77 +0.36% May 2018 1:45 AM
NG1:COMNatural Gas (Nymex) USD/MMBtu 2.74 0.00 -0.15% May 2018 1:45 AM
HO1:COMHeating Oil (Nymex) USd/gal. 214.81 +0.72 +0.34% May 2018 1:45 AM

Precious and Industrial Metals

INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME (EDT) 2 DAY
GC1:COMGold (Comex) USD/t oz. 1,328.90 +4.90 +0.37% Jun 2018 1:45 AM
XAUUSD:CURGold Spot USD/t oz. 1,326.92 +2.09 +0.16% N/A 1:56 AM
SI1:COMSilver (Comex) USD/t oz. 16.68 +0.09 +0.53% Jul 2018 1:45 AM
HG1:COMCopper (Comex) USd/lb. 315.10 +1.95 +0.62% Jul 2018 1:45 AM
XPTUSD:CURPlatinum Spot USD/t oz. 921.70 -0.10 -0.01% N/A 1:55 AM

Agriculture

INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME (EDT) 2 DAY
C 1:COMCorn (CBOT) USd/bu. 387.50 0.00 0.00% Jul 2018 1:33 AM
W 1:COMWheat (CBOT) USd/bu. 473.75 -0.75 -0.16% Jul 2018 1:35 AM
CC1:COMCocoa (ICE) USD/MT 2,726.00 -3.00 -0.11% Jul 2018 4/23/2018
CT1:COMCotton #2 (ICE) USd/lb. 84.42 +0.30 +0.36% Jul 2018 1:20 AM
LC1:COMLive Cattle (CME) USd/lb. 104.88 +1.15 +1.11% Jun 2018 4/23/2018
24.04.2018

Exchange Rates

Date: April 24, 2018; Source: the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan
1 US DOLLAR USD / KGS 68.4712
1 EURO EUR / KGS 83.8019
1 RUSSIAN ROUBLE RUB / KGS 1.1086
1 KAZAKHSTAN TENGE KZT / KGS 0.2099

Date: April 24, 2018; Source: the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan

1 US DOLLAR

USD / KGS

68.4712

1 EURO

EUR / KGS

83.8019

1 RUSSIAN ROUBLE

RUB / KGS

1.1086

1 KAZAKHSTAN TENGE

KZT / KGS

0.2099