Tuesday's trading is on the positive side, the market is optimistic about the results of yesterday's negotiations between the United States, Ukraine and European partners. However, the Moscow Exchange index has not yet been able to find the strength to go above 3,000 points. "Technically, the index has tested an important resistance at around 3,000 points. In case of consolidation above this level, the range of 3,050-3,150 opens. The nearest strong support is around 2850," commented Magomed Magomedov, analyst at Finam Financial Group.

Optimistic sentiments support diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and clear signals on this issue. The market is tired of uncertainty, so the appearance of at least some progress in negotiations is causing a wave of purchases. The bidders are pleased with the lack of talk about new sanctions or the tightening of previously imposed ones.

In addition to the latest news about the planned trilateral meeting in the Russia-Ukraine-USA format, expectations of the Fed chairman's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium have an impact on investor sentiment on global stock exchanges, and his statements may set the direction for the market.

Additional support for Russian stocks is provided by expectations of monetary easing by the Bank of Russia. The Bank of Russia reported a decrease in annual inflation in Russia in July. Over the past 12 months, prices in the country have increased by 8.8%, which is less than in June (+9.4%). It is clarified that the price increase accelerated in July due to the indexation of utility tariffs. "Annual inflation in July, despite the decline, still significantly exceeded the target. The Bank of Russia is pursuing a monetary policy aimed at returning annual inflation to 4% in 2026 and maintaining it near this level in the future," the Central Bank said in a statement.

As Dmitry Polevoy, Director of Investments at Astra Asset Management, notes, actual inflation and GDP are again below the baseline forecast. "All together, this is unlikely to change the Central Bank's willingness to cut the rate in September and further in proportion to the slowdown in inflation and deviation from the baseline forecast. But a step of more than 200 bp is hardly being discussed yet, including to prevent excessive easing of monetary conditions. However, the regulator's sensitivity to the risks of excessive cooling of the economy will grow our estimates assume an almost complete closure of the positive output gap in the third quarter of 2025, which will ensure that inflation stabilizes near the target levels further. At the end of the year, we expect no higher than 14-15% and 10-11% in 2026," he commented.

The rouble maintained its strong position in the absence of obvious negative effects from geopolitics, as well as against the background of high real interest rates. Natalia Vashchelyuk, senior analyst at the First Management Company, expects the impact of geopolitical events on the foreign exchange market to increase in the coming weeks. "In the scenario of geopolitical de-escalation and reduction of sanctions pressure, the potential for a medium term weakening of the rouble seems to be more limited than in the case of a continuation of the military conflict. A short term strengthening of the rouble to 70 per dollar is possible, followed by a weakening. By the end of the year, without progress in negotiations, the rouble may weaken to 95 per dollar. The weakening of the rouble may also be facilitated by the recent and expected reduction in rouble interest rates," said Vashchelyuk.

Segezha securities became the growth leaders in the Russian market (+3.5%). Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, believes that they could be supported by reports from the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange on the first export deal for the supply of lumber to China. The products were sold on the stock exchange by Rusforest Magistralny, a member of the LesResurs group of companies from the Siberian Federal District. Three companies from China took part in the auction, and according to the results of the competitive selection, the products were purchased by one of them. "The continuation of exchange trading in these commodities will allow the company to increase its revenue in the future," says Mr. Chernov.

Transneft's prefs (+0.2%) are growing, ignoring the weakness of oil and the existing problems with the Druzhba pipeline. Analysts at BCS World Investments do not see any risks for the company, even in the event of a protracted repair, as Transneft has high supply flexibility. "The volume of oil transportation to Hungary and Slovakia is relatively small and can be quickly redirected to other destinations," they commented.

MTS reported in the morning. Analysts at Freedom Finance Global have a positive view on MTS securities (+0.9%). The company's consolidated revenue increased by 14.4% year on year and amounted to 195.4 billion rouble, updating the historical maximum. Experts see the main reason for the decline in the company's net profit as an increase in debt servicing costs in conditions of a high key interest rate. "However, the start of the Central Bank's monetary policy easing cycle should ease the pressure on interest costs and support profitability in the coming quarters. At the same time, MTS demonstrates the steady growth of ecosystem businesses, which indicates that the company is successfully diversifying its business beyond the classic telecom," explains Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Starting from August 20, the Moscow Stock Exchange resumes trading in Fixed Price shares, which will start with the opening auction at 09:50 Moscow time. The company's shares will be available only during the main trading session in the T+ Main Trading mode. On the first day, you can expect increased interest in the company's securities.

Rusagro's securities (-4%) came under pressure due to the extension of the investigation into the founder of Rusagro holding Vadim Moshkovich and former CEO Maxim Basov until the end of November and the expansion of the list of victims. The documents indicate that Moshkovich and Basov caused material damage in the amount of at least 1 billion rouble, as well as significant damage to the rights of legal entities. According to the investigation, EFKO Food Ingredients, Syngenta, Borma, Otava, Rostock, Sinco Trade, Romanovka joint Venture, Zalesye Agricultural Enterprise and others were named as victims to whom obligations were not fulfilled. Damage was also caused to the Department of the Federal Tax Service of Russia for the Saratov region in the amount of over one billion rouble.

The weakness of the oil and gas sector securities is caused by the drawdown in oil prices: Surgutneftegaz (ord -0.6%, pref -0.3%), Lukoil (-0.6%), Gazprom Neft (-0.3%).

By Anastasia Dolgikh for Finam (Russia).